Grand Prix of Long Beach IndyCar Preview

The 50th Grand Prix of Long Beach is this Sunday and the simple fact that it is happening at all is a huge relief to race fans everywhere. You may not realize that we narrowly avoided the death of the GP of Long Beach as we know it. Just a year ago the future of Long Beach was in jeopardy when, after the passing of Kevin Kalkhoven, his half of the controlling shares came up for sale. Smelling blood in the water, Formula 1 saw an opportunity to build on Drive To Survive mania by planting their flag in America's second largest media market. Nascar saw Long Beach as a low effort way to save face in Southern California after bulldozing Auto Club Speedway in Fontana and moving the short-lived Clash at The Coliseum out of Los Angeles.  A hero emerged to safeguard this crown jewel of American open wheel racing. Gerald Forsythe purchased his former partner’s shares from his estate and sold the entirety to Roger Penske in November, ensuring that Indycar’s second longest running race would remain on the schedule for 2025 and for years to come. This collective near death experience coupled with the milestone of the 50th running raised the stakes to win what was already the most prestigious street race in North America. The question is, who has a realistic shot at the crown?

The Top Contenders

Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi, and Will Power have each won twice and Kyle Kirkwood, Josef Newgarden and Colton Herta have won once.

Scott Dixon’s many wins usually come from his superhuman ability to save fuel. This year the race has been extended from 85 laps to 90 in an effort to eliminate the two pit stop strategy and produce a more exciting race decided by all-out pace and tire management. While you can never count out the Iceman, the odds are stacked against him. Dixon’s win in 2024 was under serious threat from Josef Newgarden in the final laps before Colton Herta rear-ended him in the hairpin and forced his car into anti-stall. This essentially handed the win to Scott. Dixon’s G.O.A.T. status and Chip Ganassi Racing's dominance will definitely produce results this year but this is not the week to splurge on GridRival's 3rd most expensive driver. 

Alexander Rossi’s back-to-back wins in 2018 and 2019 were utterly dominant performances leading most of the race from pole. He even came close to three wins in a row, he was running second when his 2017 race was derailed by engine failure. In 2024 he somehow managed to salvage a 10th place finish after becoming the victim of papaya-on-papaya crime.  McLaren teammate Pato O’Ward punted him in the fountain complex on lap 3, cutting his left rear tire. Interestingly this is also the highest finish at Long Beach by any active driver on the 3 stop strategy since the current car debuted in 2018. This bodes well for 2025 which is almost guaranteed to be a 3 stop race. With this year’s move to Ed Carpenter Racing Rossi has regained his status as team leader after an uncomfortable season with McLaren. After two consecutive top 10 finishes to start the season Rossi’s GridRival salary is just barely outside talent driver range but still offers solid value and legitimate win potential for mid-pack money.

Top Runner Value

Felix Rosenqvist has an average finish of 10th at Long Beach in his five starts and has scored 7th and 5th place finishes to start the season. While his GridRival salary has already gone up by $2.8 million I believe he has not yet hit his ceiling. Fro’s Improvement Index of 12 and salary of $16 million make him an appealing value pick and I think he’ll prove to be the highest scoring talent driver at Long Beach. Enjoy it while it lasts, this may be the last week he remains talent driver eligible.

For those of us who feel starved by Indycar’s sparse spring schedule, anticipation is mounting. The 2025 GP of Long Beach could be the most exciting that we’ve seen in years. A fitting celebration of Indycar’s illustrious past and bright future on Shoreline Drive.

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